1. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is closely monitoring developments related to this year’s Nile flood, as well as the reckless unilateral actions taken by Ethiopia in managing its illegal dam, which violates international law. These practices lack the most basic principles of responsibility and transparency, pose a direct threat to the lives and security of the peoples of the downstream countries, and expose beyond doubt the falsity of Ethiopia’s repeated claims of causing no harm to others. They confirm that Ethiopia’s actions amount to the political exploitation of water resources at the expense of human lives and regional security.
With regard to the hydrological situation in the upper Nile Basin, data indicate the following:
2. The Nile River originates from three main tributaries: the White Nile, the Blue Nile, and the Atbara River. The Blue Nile flood occurs between July and October each year, typically peaking in August. Current data show that this year’s flood levels at the three main sources are about 25% above average, though still lower than last year, which was considered a high-flood year.
3. From a technical standpoint, Ethiopia should have begun gradually storing water in its dam from early July through the end of October, then releasing it in an organized manner for power generation throughout the year—consistent with its repeated claims that the dam helps regulate flooding, protect Sudan from inundation, and provide electricity to the Ethiopian people.
4. However, by the end of August, it was observed that the Ethiopian dam operators violated established technical and scientific standards, storing more floodwater than expected while reducing outflows from around 280 million m³ to 110 million m³ on September 8, 2025. These actions indicate a hasty and unregulated attempt by Ethiopia to complete the filling process, targeting an elevation of 640 meters above sea level, and then opening the middle and emergency spillways for only a few hours—merely as a “media show” and political spectacle during what was called the dam’s inauguration ceremony on September 9, 2025—without any regard for water safety or the interests of the downstream countries.
5. These assessments were confirmed by subsequent events: following the so-called inauguration ceremony on September 10, the Ethiopian operators released massive quantities of water—485 million m³ in a single day—followed by sudden and unjustified increases reaching 780 million m³ on September 27, before decreasing to 380 million m³ on September 30. Estimates of the dam’s water levels showed a drop of nearly one meter, equivalent to an unaccounted-for release of about 2 billion m³ of stored water, in addition to natural flood outflows. This exacerbated downstream water volumes and demonstrated the unregulated and erratic nature of the dam’s management (as shown in the attached figure).
6. The convergence of these large and unexpected water releases at this time of year—with irregular rainfall patterns across Sudan and increased White Nile inflows—caused a sudden rise in water volumes, resulting in the flooding of agricultural lands and the inundation of several Sudanese villages.
7. Faced with these emergency conditions, the operators of Sudan’s Roseires Dam had no choice but to store only a limited portion of the water and pass the majority through the gates to ensure the dam’s safety, given its limited storage capacity.
8. Accordingly, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation considers the hasty and unlawful filling of the Ethiopian dam, followed by the massive and abrupt release of water immediately after the so-called inauguration ceremony, to be not an unavoidable measure but clear evidence of irresponsible and unregulated management of a structure of such magnitude.
9. Ethiopia’s unilateral and reckless operation of the dam has altered the timing of the natural flood—which normally peaks in August—and caused an “artificial flood” that was more severe and occurred later in the year (part of September). This chaotic and purposeless act—intended solely for “media and political showmanship”—has caused severe damage to Sudan, as reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and endangered the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of both downstream countries. Egypt has repeatedly warned that the existence of a dam storing 74 billion m³ of water in violation of international law, without a legally binding agreement, and operated with such recklessness, poses a constant and serious threat to both downstream nations during periods of drought and flood alike.
In this context, the Ministry affirms the following:
10. Water management is conducted dynamically, based on real-time monitoring in the upper Nile and hydrological forecasting using advanced mathematical models. Through continuous observation, the Ministry determines optimal timing for water releases—whether increasing outflows during the peak agricultural demand season (May–August), regulating flows during the flood season (July–October), or reducing them during the winter closure period (January–February). This precise management ensures optimal water utilization—whether through the main river channel to meet various needs and generate electricity, or through the Toshka spillway in emergencies—thereby safeguarding Egypt’s water security against any erratic Ethiopian actions.
11. In anticipation of such scenarios, the Ministry took proactive measures, including notifying all governors on September 7, 2025, to alert citizens to exercise caution and take necessary precautions to protect their property and crops located on riverbank lands (known as tahreeb lands), despite their being illegal encroachments. This was part of the state’s efforts to protect citizens and mitigate potential flood impacts, while emphasizing that such lands are naturally part of the river’s floodplain and are prone to inundation under these conditions.
12. The lands recently submerged are, by nature, part of the river’s floodplain areas that the Nile has historically overflowed during high-water periods. However, illegal encroachments—such as cultivation and construction—have led to losses when water levels rise, even though these lands are not designated for permanent agriculture. Claims circulating on some media platforms and social networks about “governorates sinking” are false and misleading; flooding was limited to riverbank lands located within the Nile’s natural course, which are inherently part of the river’s domain and prone to submersion when levels rise—not the governorates themselves, as has been falsely reported.
13. The Ministry notes that encroachments on the river course have serious technical consequences, most importantly reducing the Nile’s discharge capacity—the lifeline of the Egyptian people. Every year, the Ministry issues warnings and undertakes extensive and costly efforts to protect the crops and properties of violators, recognizing them as citizens of the homeland. Nevertheless, continued encroachments by a few individuals harm the delivery of water to tens of millions of citizens and farmers and negatively affect agricultural activity and the national economy as a whole.
14. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation affirms that the Egyptian state, through all its agencies, is continuously monitoring the situation around the clock. The High Aswan Dam, with its storage and discharge capabilities, remains the key safeguard protecting Egypt from Nile fluctuations and sudden floods. The Ministry assures citizens that Egypt’s water resources are managed with high efficiency and careful planning that considers all possible scenarios, ensuring the fulfillment of water needs and the protection of lives and property.
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