Debunking Another Myth about Germany's Electricity Revolution
Solar Energy Now Rivals Hydro Generation
Renewable Generation Now Exceeds Generation from Hard Coal
By Paul Gipe
German use of coal to generate electricity has declined steadily
from 1990 to 2011, according to readily available statistics on the
German electricity system. The percentage of coal-fired electricity in
German electricity generation has fallen from 56.7% in 1990 to 43.5%
last year--a decrease of more than 10% despite a increase in total
electricity generation during the same period of about 10%. At the same
time the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix has increased
from 3.6% to 19.9%, mostly due to the rapid development of wind energy
and biomass
It's necessary to make this statement short and succinct because,
if anyone has missed it, there's a presidential election campaign in
full swing here in the USA. And with it is a full-on, no-holds-barred
propaganda war against renewables
Weekly--if not more often--a new broadside appears and makes the
rounds of generally right-wing blogs and talk shows. The latest talking
point is that Germany is burning more coal than ever because of all the
intermittent renewables that have been added to the system
So, let's have some fun with numbers and separate fact from fiction
First, the source. All the data I'll use comes from the Work Group
on the German Energy Balance (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen) and
can be downloaded from their web site
There are others sources of this data. This happens to be one that I
could find easily, the data was relatively concise, and it was in
spreadsheet form
Ideally, I would put all the information on one chart, but this
much to busy to easily read and comprehend. Consequently, I've broken
the data down into a series of charts.
Summary
German renewable generation now exceeds generation from hard coal and generation from nuclear
Total renewable generation was less than brown coal in 2011.
However, at last year's pace of growth, renewable generation may exceed
that from brown coal by 2015
German Electricity Generation
Total German electricity generation increased from 550 TWh in 1990
to 615 TWh in 2011. Generation peaked just before the financial collapse
in 2007 at 637 TWh
In sum, Germany generated 65 TWh more electricity in 2011 than in 1990, an increase of nearly 12%
That's not a positive, just a fact. Germany will have to do better
at cutting consumption for the energy revolution to be successful.
Fortunately, German politicians realize this. Whether they take the
actions necessary to reduce consumption is part of the current debate in
Germany.
German Net Exports of Electricity
I am using the term "generation" of electricity here rather than
"consumption" of electricity, because Germany, like France and other
European countries, both imports and exports electricity to meet the
demand of its consumers.
In the case of Germany, generation exceeds consumption. Yes, that's
right. Despite the claims, Germany exports electricity to neighboring
countries--including France
Thus "consumption" is less than "generation" in Germany for 2011 and for many other years as well
Net exports declined in 2011 but they still remained a positive 6
TWh or 1% of generation. Net exports have remained positive during the
first six months of 2012 as well
German Coal-Fired Generation Declines
Brown coal-fired generation has decreased about 10% during the past
two decades, falling from 170 TWh in 1990 to 150 TWh in 2011
Hard coal generation has fallen even more, slightly less than 20%, from 140 TWh to 115 TWh last year
Overall, total coal-fired generation has fallen 14% from 310 TWh to 270 TWh
Coal-fired generation made up 43.5% of generation in 2011, down from 56.7% in 1990
Results for the first half of 2012 indicate that coal-fired
generation may have increased slightly (~8%) above last year's
generation, according to the Fraunhofer Institute
If confirmed for the full year, this would return coal-fired
generation to the level just prior to the worldwide financial collapse
in 2007. However, this data is only for the first six months of the year
and may not be indicative for the full year. Europe suffered through
one of the coldest February's on record this year and this may have
cause a temporary bump in coal-fired generation. See Renewables Helped France Avoid Freezing in the Dark
Moreover, the source for this data is not the same source as I've
used. Those who work with statistics on electricity generation and
consumption know that it's no simple matter working with data from
different sources. We probably won't know until late next year how much
coal-fired generation was actually produced in Germany this year.
Nuclear Generation Down
It has now been more than a year since Germany announced (again) that it was phasing out nuclear power (30 May 2011) and immediately closed eight reactors permanently
However, it is not widely known that German nuclear generation was
already in decline. At the time of the conservative government's
announcement in 2011, two reactors had already been off line for several
years
Nuclear generation increased from 150 TWh in 1990 to a peak of 170
TWh in 2001. Generation began to fall off steeply in 2006 and
dramatically declined after 2008
Since 1990, nuclear generation has fallen nearly 30% to 110 TWh by the end of 2011
Renewable Generation Up
Total renewable generation during the past two decades has risen
dramatically--in real terms. Of course that is the message that the
steady drumbeat of anti-renewables stories are trying to drown out.
Total renewable generation increased from 20 TWh in 1990 to 120 TWh
in 2011 with most of that growth taking place since the introduction of
Germany's Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, or
the EEG) in 2000
Total renewables generation now exceeds nuclear generation, 110
TWh, generation with hard coal, 115 TWh, and gas-fired generation, 84
TWh
Existing hydro accounted for nearly 4% of supply in 1990 and by the
end of 2011 total renewable generation had increased five times to
nearly 20% of generation
Most of the growth in renewable generation came from wind energy
and biomass, but solar photovoltaics (solar PV) contributed nearly 20
TWh in 2011 or about 16% of total renewable generation
Solar already rivals existing hydro in Germany and solar PV's
contribution is increasing dramatically. In 2011 it supplied 3% of total
generation in Germany and is expected to reach 4% or more of total
generation in 2012
Only brown coal generates more electricity in Germany, 150 TWh, than renewables
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