The International Monetary Fund has approved the two main reviews of the USD 8 billion financing program—news that will be warmly welcomed by the business community. More importantly, the tone of the Fund’s statement, issued in the early hours of today and attributed to Mission Chief Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, differs radically from the statement that accompanied the previous program review, which was approved by the IMF’s Executive Board exactly one year ago this week.
The headline news: The government and IMF staff have reached an agreement on the critical fifth and sixth reviews under what is known as the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). They have also agreed on the first review under a parallel financing package known as the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). This staff-level agreement now awaits approval by the IMF’s Executive Board.
The expected outcome: Approximately USD 3.8 billion will flow into the state treasury once the IMF Executive Board approves the reviews in January (the date has not yet been set on the Board’s meeting schedule). This includes about USD 2.5 billion from the fifth and sixth EFF reviews, and a further USD 1.3 billion from the first RSF review. This would raise total disbursements under the EFF to date to around USD 5.7 billion.
Why this matters: The IMF provides a substantial portion of the financing upfront, giving the Cabinet a comfortable liquidity buffer at the start of 2026 and effectively signaling to the government’s economic team that it will not have to struggle to secure funding—provided it stays the course on reforms.
The statement opens with a sentence that would have been impossible to imagine 18 months ago: “Stabilization efforts have delivered important gains, and the Egyptian economy is showing signs of strong growth.” There are no caveats, no lurking “but” or “however” in the following sentence. The Fund states—plainly—that the Cabinet’s strategy is delivering results.
Strong economic indicators back this up: GDP growth accelerated to 4.4% in FY 2024–2025, up from 2.4% the previous year, with first-quarter growth in the current fiscal year reaching 5.3%, according to the statement. The current account deficit narrowed thanks to strong remittance inflows, higher tourism revenues, and solid growth in non-oil exports. Non-resident holdings of Egyptian treasury bills rose to around USD 30 billion, and foreign reserves reached USD 56.9 billion—a figure that seemed relatively out of reach not long ago.
Even the criticism was gentler, pointing to areas that still require further work. Hollar said the tax-to-GDP ratio remains “modest by international standards” at 12.2%; that the decline in inflation “has not yet been firmly entrenched” (which could imply no interest-rate cut on Thursday); that state-owned banks require “strong and sustained governance practices”; and that the Cabinet needs to “accelerate” the government’s asset-offering program.
The IMF also pointed to the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation as a source of fiscal risk, but the overall framework of the Fund’s discourse on Egypt has changed. The urgent warnings have faded, replaced by checklist-style items for a country that is broadly on the right track.
The Fund noted that members of the business community consulted during its visit to Cairo praised the government’s progress on key reforms, writing that “private-sector participants acknowledged the results already achieved” with respect to “trade facilitation” and tax reform. The statement also notes emerging signs of fiscal discipline (i.e., a halt to excessive spending) and explicitly references the “national narrative for economic development”—the Cabinet’s new framework that places the private sector in the driver’s seat of the economy.
The shift in sentiment is the most important news here.
Why this is important: To properly appreciate how different this statement is, it must be read alongside the Fund’s previous statements.
This is no longer about a crisis—or fear of backsliding. When the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the first and second reviews in March 2024, the statement was written in “crisis-mode” language. It opened with “significant macroeconomic challenges that have become more complex to manage,” referred to “policy slippages” that needed correction, and emphasized a “difficult” environment at every turn.
By June 2024 and the third review, the tone had softened somewhat but remained heavily qualified. The Fund acknowledged that “efforts have begun to improve the outlook,” but immediately pivoted to “downside risks surrounding the economic outlook” and called for “accelerating” reforms.
A year ago this week, the fourth review struck much the same note: “challenging external conditions,” a “domestically difficult economic environment,” and repeated calls for “more efforts,” “more reforms,” and “more decisive action” on state asset divestment and leveling the playing field.
A year on, the warnings are still there—but they no longer dominate the narrative. The Fund now opens its statement with success and buries the concerns deeper in the text. For a document that investors, rating agencies, and the diplomatic community will read closely, the structural choices in the statement’s wording matter greatly.
What is driving this shift? Three factors stand out clearly:
#1 – Macroeconomic indicators are moving in the right direction. Growth is accelerating, inflation is easing, and the balance of payments has improved markedly despite headwinds in the Suez Canal (even in the country’s strategic shipping artery, signs of changing conditions are emerging). Reserves are also at comfortable levels. IMF staff respond to data—they do not soften their tone for diplomatic reasons.
#2 – Fund officials have been informed that Banque du Caire is on track for an initial public offering in Q2 2026 under the leadership of CEO Hussein Abaza, as reported by Enterprise last week. Abaza is regarded as one of the most trusted executives among global investors in the private sector, thanks to his years running the investor relations program at Commercial International Bank, where he most recently served as CEO. This is believed to have helped shift the IMF’s tone on government asset offerings: the state’s economic footprint and the slow pace of divestment have long been sore points in the relationship. Fund staff now appear to believe the government is serious about moving forward on this front.
#3 – Timing. The IMF program ends in December 2026. With the fifth and sixth reviews now completed, the program enters its final phase. The Fund appears confident that the finish line is in sight. This is no longer a program at risk of going off track—it is a program delivering results.
What comes next?
The country still has two reviews to pass. The seventh is scheduled for March 2026 and could unlock a further USD 1.25 billion. The eighth and final review will take place in November 2026, bringing another USD 1.25 billion to the table.
Why November? The final review was originally scheduled for September 2026 but was postponed at the government’s request to allow more time to implement the final set of structural benchmarks. This suggests that both sides want to conclude the program on the strongest possible footing—and that the Fund is willing to give Egypt the space to do so. That would have been almost impossible to imagine a year ago.
In context: The Extended Fund Facility is the IMF’s primary lending instrument for countries facing medium-term balance-of-payments problems, designed for situations requiring deep structural reforms rather than short-term liquidity support. The current USD 8 billion facility was approved in December 2022 at USD 3 billion and was expanded in March 2024 after Israel’s war on Gaza and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea complicated conditions. The Resilience and Sustainability Facility is a newer, parallel instrument with a particular focus on climate-related reforms and can provide up to an additional USD 1.3 billion to support decarbonization and climate finance efforts. The two programs run in parallel, with RSF reviews contingent on achieving milestones under the Extended Fund Facility.
https://enterprise.news/egypt/en
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